Week Ahead: Will U.S. Inflation Data Surprise the Market?

Several key economic indicators will be released this week, providing insights into global economic trends. On 7 April at 09:00 GMT, Eurozone retail sales data will be released. YoY growth is expected to rise from 1.5% to 2.1%, and MoM figures are forecasted to recover from -0.3% to 0.6%, potentially reflecting stronger consumer sentiment. Australia’s business confidence index, set for release on 8 April at 01:30 GMT, is projected to improve from -1 in February to 4 in March, likely due to economic stabilisation and policy optimism.

On 9 April, the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) will announce its interest rate decision at 02:00 GMT, expecting a cut from 3.75% to 3.5%, possibly reflecting easing inflation pressures. Later that day at 23:50 GMT, Japan’s PPI data is expected to rise from 4% to 4.2% YoY, with MoM figures forecasted at 0.3%, indicating rising input costs. On 10 April, China’s inflation data at 01:30 GMT is expected to return to 0% YoY from -0.7% in February, while the U.S. inflation rate, due at 12:30 GMT, is forecasted to slow from 2.8% to 2.5% YoY, reflecting moderating price pressures.

Finally, on 11 April, the U.K. GDP MoM data at 06:00 GMT is anticipated to rise from -0.1% to 0.1%, signalling a possible economic rebound, while the U.S. PPI report at 12:30 GMT is expected to ease from 3.2% to 3% YoY, suggesting softer wholesale inflation. These releases will be closely watched for their potential impact on financial markets.

Here are the week’s key events:

Monday, 7 April 2025: [09:00 GMT] Eurozone Retail Sales YoY

Eurozone retail sales year-on-year (YoY) for January were 1.5%, with a forecast of 2.1% for February. On a month-on-month (MoM) basis, January saw a decline of -0.3%, while February is expected to show a 0.6% increase. The expected increase in February could be attributed to seasonal adjustments, such as post-holiday sales and a rebound in consumer spending. Furthermore, improving economic sentiment and consumer confidence might be contributing factors to the projected growth, despite the slight decline observed in January. This data is set to be released on 7 April at 09:00 GMT.

(Eurozone Retail Sales YoY Chart, Source: Trading Central)

Top US company earnings: -

Tuesday, 8 April 2025: [01:30 GMT] Australia Business Confidence

Australia's business confidence for February stood at -1, with the forecast for March at 4. The expected rebound in March could reflect improving economic conditions, such as stronger domestic demand or more favourable business policies. Additionally, the expectation of stabilisation in key sectors and potential optimism surrounding government stimulus or interest rate adjustments could drive business confidence higher, reversing the decline seen in February. This data is set to be released on 8 April at 01:30 GMT.

(Australia Business Confidence Chart, Source: Trading Central)

Top US company earnings: -

Wednesday, 9 April 2025: [02:00 GMT] RBNZ Interest Rate Decision, [23:50] Japan PPI YoY

The previous Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) interest rate was set at 3.75%, while the expected rate for the upcoming decision is 3.5%. The anticipated reduction could be due to a shift in the RBNZ’s stance as inflationary pressures show signs of easing, or in response to slower economic growth. This adjustment may reflect efforts to stimulate economic activity while managing inflation within the target range. Additionally, a more dovish outlook on future economic conditions might be influencing the expectation for a rate cut. This data is set to be released on 9 April at 02:00 GMT.

(RBNZ Interest Rate Decision Chart, Source: Trading Central)

Japan's Producer Price Index (PPI) year-on-year (YoY) for February was 4%, with the forecast for March at 4.2%. On a month-on-month (MoM) basis, February saw no change at 0%, while March is expected to show a 0.3% increase. The expected rise in the YoY figure for March could be due to higher input costs or ongoing supply chain pressures, particularly in energy and raw materials. The MoM increase might reflect seasonal adjustments, rising demand for industrial goods, or cost pass-through from producers to consumers as input costs gradually rise. This data is set to be released on 9 April at 23:50 GMT.

(Japan PPI y/y Chart, Source: Trading Central)

Top US company earnings: -

Thursday, 10 April 2025: [01:30 GMT] China Inflation Rate YoY, [12:30 GMT] U.S Inflation Rate YoY

China's inflation rate year-on-year (YoY) for February was -0.7%, with the forecast for March at 0%. On a month-on-month (MoM) basis, February saw a decline of -0.2%, while the expected drop for March is -0.4%. The anticipated return to 0% YoY inflation in March suggests a potential stabilisation of prices, possibly due to easing deflationary pressures or a rebound in demand. The expected deeper MoM decline could reflect seasonal adjustments, lower commodity prices, or weaker consumer spending in specific sectors, which may continue suppressing price growth in the short term. This data is set to be released on 10 April at 01:30 GMT.

(China Inflation Rate YoY Chart, Source: Trading Central)

The U.S. inflation rate year-on-year (YoY) for February was 2.8%, with the forecast for March at 2.5%. On a month-on-month (MoM) basis, February saw an increase of 0.2%, while the expected March figure is 0.1%. The anticipated decline in YoY inflation for March suggests a reduction in price pressures, possibly driven by lower energy costs or more stable supply chains. The lower MoM forecast could indicate a slowdown in price increases, reflecting weaker consumer demand or a temporary easing in specific sectors like food or housing. This data is set to be released on 10 April at 12:30 GMT.

(U.S. Inflation Rate YoY Chart, Source: Trading Central)

Top US company earnings: Progressive (PGR), Fast Retailing ADR (FRCOY)

Friday, 11 April 2025: [06:00 GMT] U.K. GDP MoM, [12:30 GMT] U.S PPI YoY

The U.K. GDP month-on-month (MoM) for January was -0.1%, with the forecast for February at 0.1%. The expected rebound in February could be due to a recovery in key sectors, such as services and manufacturing, following the slight contraction in January. This growth might also be supported by seasonal factors, such as increased consumer spending or business activity after the holiday period, signaling a potential stabilisation in economic activity. This data is set to be released on 11 April at 06:00 GMT.

(U.K. GDP m/m Chart, Source: Trading Central)

The U.S. Producer Price Index (PPI) year-on-year (YoY) for February was 3.2%, with the forecast for March at 3%. On a month-on-month (MoM) basis, February saw no change (0%), while the expected March figure is -0.1%. The expected decline in YoY PPI for March suggests a moderation in producer price inflation, possibly due to easing costs for raw materials and energy. The slight MoM decrease could reflect seasonal adjustments, reduced demand, or a temporary slowdown in production activity, leading to marginally lower prices at the wholesale level. This data is set to be released on 11 April at 12:30 GMT.

(U.S. PPI y/y Chart, Source: Trading Central)

Top US company earnings: JPMorgan (JPM), Wells Fargo & Co (WFC)

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