Markets Face Volatility Risk on the upcoming economic data

As investors brace for the release of key economic data, markets are confronting potential volatility risks, anticipation surrounding reports on inflation, employment, and consumer spending may lead to significant market fluctuations.

November will conclude with a holiday-shortened week as U.S. markets close for Thanksgiving on November 28 and resume trading for a shortened session on November 29. During this time, market participation typically decreases, as many traders take a break for the holiday.

This reduction in liquidity in the largest financial markets could lead to a period of quiet consolidation. However, the resulting lower number of buyers and sellers at various price levels may increase volatility if any unexpected events prompt traders to react.

With this in mind, here are the key macroeconomic indicators to watch.

Federal Open Market Committee Meeting Minutes

In this month’s policy announcement, the U.S. central bank appeared to temper its dovish stance. Officials seem to have become more cautious following September's significant 50-basis-point (bps) rate cut and the optimistic forecast of an additional 150 bps in stimulus through the end of 2025.

This likely reflects the market's adjustment to expectations of higher inflation following the moves made in September. Fed Chair Jerome Powell emphasized this point in a highly anticipated speech last week, asserting that monetary policy is not on a dovish autopilot. He reiterated that achieving the 2% inflation target remains a top priority.

With this context, traders will be eager to assess how much the officials may have reconsidered their stance during this month’s Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting. If the meeting minutes indicate that the central bank is having doubts, we could see another rise in bond yields, which may unsettle stocks and strengthen the U.S. dollar, while putting downward pressure on gold prices.

U.S. personal consumption expenditure (PCE) price index

The Fed’s favored inflation gauge is expected to show that headline price growth cooled in October, slowing to 2.1% year-on-year from 2.2% in the prior month. The core PCE measure excluding volatile food and energy prices—a focal point for central bank officials—is seen holding unchanged at 2.7%.

Overall, this would mark four consecutive months without disinflation, mirroring trends observed in consumer price index (CPI) data for the same timeframe. Citigroup's analysis indicates that U.S. economic data continues to outperform baseline forecasts, potentially setting the stage for an upside surprise.

Similar to the FOMC minutes, any hint that the Fed's outlook for rate cuts remains overly optimistic could lead to a decline in Treasuries, with yields and the U.S. dollar rising in tandem. This scenario is unlikely to bode well for stock markets.

Eurozone Consumer Price Index (CPI) Data

Inflation in the Euro Area is projected to rise to 2.3% year-on-year in November, reaching its highest level since July. Citigroup's analysis of recent economic data surprises from the region indicates a tendency for outcomes to exceed expectations.

If this trend signals a stronger rebound in price growth, the euro could strengthen as speculation around European Central Bank (ECB) rate cuts diminishes. Currently, markets are anticipating an 82% probability of another 25-basis-point cut before the end of the year, along with 86 basis points of additional easing next year.

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