The historical average increase of Bitcoin in October is 22%

Crypto analyst Rekt Capital points out that Bitcoin (BTC) historically performs strongly in October. Data shows that Bitcoin has only experienced declines in October in 2014 and 2018, both of which were during bear market cycles.

Currently, the market is in a Bitcoin halving cycle year. Historically, Bitcoin only saw single-digit gains in October 2018 (also a bear market year). Besides that, October typically brings double-digit gains, with an average increase of 22%.

Bitcoin Faces Persistent Selling Pressure Between $61,700 and $70,500

According to IntoTheBlock data, approximately 7 million addresses purchased Bitcoin in the $61,700 to $70,500 range.

Due to many traders being in a loss at this price level, Bitcoin faces persistent selling pressure whenever it approaches this range, as many investors seek to break even. This is why Bitcoin struggles to reach new highs, as only strong momentum can break through this trend to achieve new peaks.

The market greed index has shown fear for as many as 23 days, accounting for 76.67%. Last night, the BTC price fell below $58,000, causing many short-term investors to panic-sell. This indirectly reflects that the current market is dominated by emotions, with many investors choosing to stay on the sidelines in the face of low liquidity and turnover rates, and even rapidly withdrawing their investments with minor price declines.

Analysis: Bitcoin May Rise to $110,000, but Could First Dip Below $40,000

According to analyses by crypto analysts Titan of Crypto and Elja Boom, Bitcoin (BTC) prices are expected to reach $110,000 by 2025. Titan of Crypto notes that Bitcoin is forming a 'cup and handle' pattern, a bullish chart pattern suggesting future price increases. Elja Boom mentions that if BTC's 'inverse head and shoulders' pattern breaks out, it will drive the price above $100,000, with a high point expected in Q4 2024 and potentially reaching $100,000 in Q1 2025.

However, not all analysts are so optimistic. Analyst Magoo PhD warns that Bitcoin might first retrace to below $40,000 before the potential rise in 2025. Additionally, analyst Moustace believes that even if a retracement occurs, the market bottom will likely be around $57,000. According to CoinGlass data, Bitcoin currently has significant support at $57,000; a drop below this level could trigger the liquidation of over $860 million in leveraged short positions.

Despite the uncertainty in Bitcoin's price movements, the market broadly expects the price to surpass six figures in the coming years."

Bitcoin Miners' Revenue Falls to Lowest Point in 12 Months in August

Bitcoin miners' revenue dropped to its lowest point in 12 months in August 2024, primarily due to the April halving event. According to Bitcoin monitoring platform Bitbo, mining revenue in August was approximately $827 million, the lowest since September 2023, and significantly below the nearly $2 billion peak in March 2024.

The halving event, which occurs every four years, reduces the Bitcoin reward per block by half. The April halving cut the reward from 6.25 BTC to 3.125 BTC. Since the halving, the number of Bitcoins mined monthly has steadily declined, from a peak of 347,000 BTC in May 2011 to less than 14,000 BTC in August.

A JPMorgan report noted that the fourth Bitcoin halving event has reduced daily mining output and revenue opportunities, affecting miners' profit margins and profitability. The five publicly traded Bitcoin miners JPMorgan tracks saw a 28% decrease in mining volume in Q2.

In response to declining revenue, Bitcoin miners are adjusting their business models. Some companies, such as Core Scientific, Hive Digital Technologies, and Hut 8, are investing in artificial intelligence applications, while others, like Bitdeer Technologies Group, are improving mining efficiency. Bitdeer reported a 50% year-over-year increase in gross profit for Q2 2024.

When considering shares, indices, forex (foreign exchange) and commodities for trading and price predictions, remember that trading CFDs involves a significant degree of risk and could result in capital loss.

Past performance is not indicative of any future results. This information is provided for informative purposes only and should not be construed to be investment advice. Trading cryptocurrency CFDs and spreadbets is restricted for all UK retail clients.