Week Ahead: Growth, Inflation, and Consumer Trends in Focus

On Monday, 21 April, at 14:00 GMT, the U.S. CB Leading Index is expected to post a -0.2% MoM reading. On Tuesday, 22 April, at 12:30 GMT, Canada’s PPI is forecast to rise 4.5% YoY, slightly lower than the previous month. On Wednesday, 23 April, the U.K. Flash Manufacturing PMI at 08:30 GMT, projected to rise to 46.8, and U.S. New Home Sales at 14:00 GMT, expected to decline slightly to 670,000.
On Thursday, 24 April at 12:30 GMT, U.S. Durable Goods Orders are forecast to decline by 0.5% MoM. Rounding out the week, Friday, 25 April at 06:00 GMT, U.K. Retail Sales are expected to slow to 0.7% YoY and fall -0.3% MoM, reflecting tighter consumer spending conditions.
Here are the week’s key events:

Monday, 21 April 2025: [14:00 GMT] U.S. CB Leading Index MoM

The U.S. Conference Board Leading Index declined by 0.3% month-over-month in February, and the expected value for March is around -0.2%. This slightly improved forecast reflects stabilising financial conditions and a modest pickup in consumer sentiment, supported by resilient labor market data and easing inflation pressures. However, the index is still expected to remain in negative territory due to ongoing weakness in manufacturing activity and cautious business investment. This data is set to be released on 21 April at 14:00 GMT.

(U.S. CB Leading Index MoM Chart, Source: Trading Central)

Top US company earnings: -

Tuesday, 22 April 2025: [12:30 GMT] Canada PPI YoY

Canada’s Producer Price Index (PPI) rose 4.9% year-over-year in February, with the March forecast slightly lower at 4.5%, while the month-over-month figure held steady at 0.4% and is expected to remain unchanged. The modest decline in the annual rate reflects base effects from last year’s elevated prices and a gradual easing in input cost pressures across several industrial sectors. However, the steady monthly figure suggests that upstream inflation remains persistent, particularly in energy and raw materials, indicating that pricing pressures are stabilising rather than declining sharply. This data is set to be released on 22 April at 12:30 GMT.

(Canada PPI YoY Chart, Source: Trading Central)

Top US company earnings: Tesla (TSLA), SAP (SAP)

Wednesday, 23 April 2025: [08:30 GMT] U.K. Flash Manufacturing PMI, [14:00 GMT] U.S. New Home Sales

The U.K. manufacturing PMI flash reading for March came in at 44.9, with the April forecast rising to 46.8. The anticipated improvement reflects early signs of stabilising demand, easing input cost pressures, and improving supplier delivery times. Although the sector remains in contraction territory, the expected rebound is supported by gradual inventory restocking and a modest pickup in domestic and export orders. This data is set to be released on 23 April at 08:30 GMT.

U.S. new home sales totaled 676,000 in February, with March sales expected to edge slightly lower to 670,000. The modest decline reflects lingering affordability challenges due to elevated mortgage rates and still-high home prices, which continue to weigh on buyer demand. While supply conditions have improved marginally, cautious consumer sentiment and tighter credit conditions are expected to keep a lid on new home sales momentum in the near term. This data is set to be released on 23 April at 14:00 GMT.

(U.S. New Home Sales Chart, Source: Trading Central)

Top US company earnings: Philip Morris (PM), IBM (IBM)

Thursday, 24 April 2025: [12:30 GMT] U.S. Durable Goods Orders MoM

U.S. durable goods orders rose by 0.9% month-over-month in February but are expected to decline by 0.5% in March. The projected pullback reflects a likely correction following February's strong gains, which were driven by a surge in transportation and defense-related orders. In March, weakening business investment sentiment, elevated interest rates, and slowing global demand are expected to dampen new orders, especially in core categories like machinery and electronics, contributing to the anticipated decline. This data is set to be released on 24 April at 12:30 GMT.

(U.S. Durable Goods Orders MoM Chart, Source: Trading Central)

Top US company earnings: Amazon.com (AMZN), P&G (PG)

Friday, 25 April 2025: [06:00 GMT] U.K. Retail Sales YoY,

U.K. retail sales rose by 2.2% year-over-year and 1.0% month-over-month in February, but both figures are expected to weaken in March, with forecasts at 0.7% YoY and -0.3% MoM. The anticipated slowdown reflects the fading impact of seasonal spending boosts seen early in the year, as well as growing pressure on household budgets from persistent inflation and higher borrowing costs. Additionally, consumer confidence remains fragile amid economic uncertainty, leading to more cautious discretionary spending, contributing to the expected dip in retail activity. This data is set to be released on 25 April at 06:00 GMT.

(U.K. Retail Sales YoY Chart, Source: Trading Central)

Top US company earnings: Industrial Commercial Bank of China (IDCBY), AbbVie (ABBV)

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