Morning Note: Nvidia Earnings, Aussie CPI, Gold's Slide

Investors Eye Nvidia Earnings Report

DeepSeek's influence caused a notable decline in NVIDIA Corporation’s (NVDA) stock last month. Although a significant portion of the drop has been recovered, the stock is now concentrating on the upcoming fiscal 2025 fourth-quarter and full-year earnings report, scheduled for release on February 26 at GMT 10:00 PM. In this quarter, NVIDIA unveiled its much-anticipated Blackwell architecture. CEO Jensen Huang noted that the demand for Blackwell chips has been exceptional, fuelled by their improved efficiency, faster AI capabilities, and enhanced security features.

Analysts predict that NVIDIA will report adjusted fourth-quarter earnings of $0.85 per share, with revenues hitting $38.08 billion and a net income of $19.58 billion. Furthermore, NVIDIA's remarkable average four-quarter earnings surprise of 9.8% indicates potential earnings growth in this upcoming release, which could have a positive effect on its stock performance.

(NVIDIA Stock Daily Price Chart, Source: Trading View)

From a technical analysis perspective, NVIDIA's stock price has been in a bullish trend since August 2024, as indicated by the higher highs and higher lows. However, the price failed to form higher highs and instead formed a double-top candlestick pattern, with bearish momentum pushing the price downward at the beginning of January 2025. Recently, the price has completely broken below the swap zone, suggesting a high possibility of the price moving toward the support zone for a further retest.

Australia January Consumer Prices

Data released by the Australian Bureau of Statistics on Wednesday showed that the annual inflation rate held steady at 2.5%, slightly lower than market expectations of 2.6%. Meanwhile, the trimmed mean measure of core inflation increased to 2.8% year-over-year in January, up from 2.7% in December. However, analysts pointed out that the January report provides only a limited perspective on the overall CPI basket, emphasising goods over services. Market swaps suggested only a 17% likelihood of another interest rate cut by the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) in April.

(AUD/USD Daily Chart, Source: Trading View)

From a technical analysis perspective, the AUD/USD currency pair has been in a bearish trend since the beginning of October 2024, as indicated by the lower highs and lower lows within the descending channel. Recently, the price rebounded but was rejected at the order block, causing it to start dropping again. If it completely breaks and closes below this order block, the price may drop further to retest the swap zone.

Market Jitters Drag Gold Lower

Gold prices fell to their lowest point in over a week on Tuesday, as investors took profits following a record high in the previous session, amid ongoing concerns about U.S. President Donald Trump's tariff policies. In addition, a study released Monday by the San Francisco Federal Reserve revealed that investors and economists anticipate the U.S. Federal Reserve will respond “strongly and systematically” to shifts in inflation and employment figures. Rising inflation may prompt the Fed to maintain higher interest rates, which would make non-yielding assets like gold less appealing.

(Gold Daily Price Chart, Source: Trading View)

From a technical analysis perspective, gold is maintaining a bullish trend, as indicated by the higher highs and higher lows within the ascending channel. Recently, gold faced significant bearish momentum. If the price manages to close above the swap zone in the near term, this indicates a high likelihood of the price continuing to surge upward, potentially reaching another record high.

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Past performance is not indicative of any future results. This information is provided for informative purposes only and should not be construed to be investment advice.