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Boeing shares tumbled in premarket trading on Monday after a panel blew out of an Alaska Airlines 737-9 Max, prompting the U.S. Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) to temporarily ground 171 of these planes.
Boeing shares, which trade on the NYSE exchange under the ticker BA, plummeted by as much as 8%, undoing a 19% gain over the last 52 weeks. The dive in Boeing shares is expected to have a substantial impact on the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) due the aircraft maker’s presence in the index. Dow futures dropped by 188 points on the news.
Fuselage manufacturer Spirit AeroSystems Holdings also slid by as much as 20%. Alaska Air Group and United Airline, the two U.S. operators of the Max 9, saw their stock decline by 4% and 3% respectively. Copa Holdings and Aeromexico are also grappling with the fallout of the incident.
Boeing has faced intense scrutiny in recent years following two plane crashes involving its Boeing 737-8 MAX planes in 2018 and 2019, which resulted in the deaths of 346 people. The FAA grounded those Boeing planes for 20 months.
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J. P. Morgan analyst Seth Seifman noted that the incident poses challenges for Boeing's production ramp-up over the next two years, with unclear financial outcomes. Citing the publication Air Current, he highlighted that there are two quality assurance tests for the section that fell out of the aircraft, with one performed by Spirit and one by Boeing. “One thing we can say, however, is that it is imperative for Spirit and Boeing to shore up the quality of production”, Seifman added. In a note to clients cited by MarketWatch, Citi analyst Jason Gursky said he expects a limited financial impact on Boeing shares:
“The newness of the aircraft (2 mos. old), the fact that the -9 has been flying with plugged doors since the late 1990s, and the fact that the MAX has been in service since 2015 without a similar event, points to a manufacturing issue with this particular aircraft vs. a broader design problem”. Gursky pointed to the RTX Corporation’s geared turbofan troubles as a potential roadmap for the current situation —the company, formerly known as Raytheon, is paying close to $13,500 per day per grounded aircraft, reflecting the estimated lease cost for an Airbus A320: “Applying math to the grounded 737-9 MAX fleet yields a daily cost of $2.3 [million] for BA (170 affected aircraft x $13,500)”.
Jefferies analyst Sheila Kahyaoglu suggested a potentially quick turnaround, estimating required inspections at four-to-eight hours per aircraft. A one-week pause could result in a cost of about $18 million, according to the analyst. Shares of Boeing rival Airbus SE rose by close to 2.5% in Paris.
While both Boeing and Airbus face substantial backlogs, it is likely that major airlines will be hesitant to shift away from Boeing's planes. Airbus currently holds a backlog of more than 8,000 orders (as of November 2023, while Boeing's backlog last stood at 5,324, according to company figures from the same month last year.
At the time of writing on January 8, the Boeing share price stood at $231.39, down 7.20% in premarket trading. Spirit Aerosystems shares were down close to 14%, trading at $27.35, while Airbus shares on Euronext Paris traded at over €143 (up 2.38% on the day).
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Past performance is not indicative of any future results. This information is provided for informative purposes only and should not be construed to be investment advice.
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